Predictions, Hires, and Championship Insights

Welcome to the Sunday 7 (actually Sunday 9, but who’s counting)…

Happy Championship Game Sunday in the NFL. Although my predictions last week were off base, I will try again and predict that the Eagles and Chiefs will advance to the Super Bowl in a rematch from a couple of years ago. But again, picking games is certainly not my expertise.

Insights below on five NFL head coaching hires made this week, as well as my thoughts on the Washington Commanders amid an incoming Washington Commander-in-Chief. Also, I discuss Ohio State’s $20 million championship roster and the front office mastery of the Los Angeles Dodgers. A jam-packed Sunday 9 for you… 

Settle in and learn…

1. What I’m thinking of Ben Johnson becoming head coach of the Bears…

Johnson, the now-former Lions offensive coordinator, was the most sought-after head coaching candidate for the past three years. Interestingly, he probably would have been the head coach for the Commanders if he wanted that position a year ago, the team that ousted his Lions from the playoffs last week.

Johnson chose the Bears over other suitors for what I sense are two reasons. First, follow the money. He will reportedly earn an average of $13 million a year, putting him just below the top echelon of head coaches without having been one before; the Bears were willing to spend. The other reason is the quarterback. Caleb Williams, the top overall pick in the 2024 Draft, may not be doing what Jayden Daniels is doing, but he may be the next best thing, or at least with Johnson, we’ll find out.

Johnson was wooed privately and publicly by the Raiders, as minority owner and FOX broadcaster Tom Brady gushed about him during games. But Johnson preferred working with Caleb Williams more than any quarterback option the Raiders would have had in the Draft or free agency.

When I was with the Packers, we quietly smiled or smirked when a division rival kept or hired a general manager or coach that, well, was not exactly a game-changer. To the contrary, though this hire should make the Bears better in the NFL’s strongest division.

2. What I’m thinking about Pete Carroll becoming head coach of the Raiders…

 With Johnson choosing the Bears, the Raiders pivoted in a way I certainly did not expect, with their braintrust, led by Tom Brady, choosing the 72-year-old Carroll to lead them. I had thought that Carroll had coached his last game in the NFL after his separation from the Seahawks, seen to be — like Bill Belichick. — too old or inflexible to lead a team. But in the ultimate irony, Tom Brady did choose a 70-something-year-old, just not the one he played under for twenty years.

 Now in my sixties but always cognizant of health and longevity, I am quite a fan of Carroll. He certainly doesn’t fit the mold of what people “should” look like or act like in their seventies; and good for him. One can be chronologically “old” without being old. We all fight the inevitable consequences of aging, but some do so better than most. And being around young people all the time, whether Carroll with players or myself with my sons and my students, certainly helps.

Age is just a number; Pete Carroll is a testament to that.

3. What I’m thinking about Liam Coen becoming head coach of the Jaguars…

There are people in all businesses, including the NFL, who can best be described as “survivors.” There are regime changes, coaching changes, staff changes, etc., but somehow, some way, they survive and continue. 

Trent Baalke, the now-former general manager of the Jaguars, is one of these people. Both in San Francisco with the 49ers and in Jacksonville with the Jaguars, he survived and continued as firings and hirings went on around him. Until this week, when the Jaguars and he separated in a “mutual” agreement.

The decision came on the heels of Liam Coen, the offensive coordinator with the Bucs who had interviewed to be head coach of the Jaguars, deciding to re-up with Tampa as coordinator. Magically, after Baalke’s exit, Coen has changed course and left Tampa to be head coach in Jacksonville. Obviously, the two moves are related: it was not a well-kept secret around the NFL that his presence was a limiting factor in attracting top head coaching candidates.

 It is common but not necessarily imperative that a head coach and a general manager start their tenures together; there have been pairings that have worked well outside of that symmetry. But Baalke has a reputation; coaching candidates were not comfortable being around someone who both seems to have the owner’s ear and “survives” coaching firings. But no longer; Jaguars owner Shad Khan got the message, and Baalke is out and Coen is back in.

4. What I’m thinking about Aaron Glenn becoming head coach of the Jets and Brian Schottenheimer becoming head coach of the Cowboys…

 To both, I say: good luck with that.

 The Jets have been putting the “fun” in dysfunction over the past couple of years, firing coaches and general managers, giving management leverage to Aaron Rodgers, having the owner’s sons around the locker room making comments (possibly using Madden ratings), etc. Now Glenn, a former Jet and well-respected defensive coach coming in from Detroit, takes a turn at this challenge. He’ll have to first figure out what to do with Aaron — I think they part ways after a challenging two-year relationship — and go from there.

Similarly, Schottenheimer represents a typical Jerry Jones hire. It is one of the last hires of the cycle, true to Jones’ mode of operations of waiting and waiting for no apparent reason. It is a name — like Dave Campo or Wade Phillips or Jason Garrett — that will be loyal to him yet uninspiring to fans, media and, perhaps, players. And it will keep the focus on Jones as the most important non-player in the franchise.

 Again, good luck to these guys.

5. What I’m thinking about the Commanders in Chief and the Commander-in-Chief…

I discussed the rise of the Washington Commanders last week and the galvanizing effect that their success has on the politically polarized area of Washington, DC. I saw it decades ago in my youth and am seeing it now; family and friends now feeling a real sense of joy for what they have done (and may still do).

New team owner Josh Harris paid a record price of $6 billion for the franchise but he knew - having grown up in the area - what a passionate and starved fan base he was tapping into. And now that starvation has been sated. Win or lose tomorrow, the Commanders are one of the big stories in sports this year, and have their quarterback/leader for the future, in Jayden Daniels. They have removed the stench of former owner Daniel Snyder.

As for other Commander (in Chief), sports law/business types like myself will be watching how the Trump administration deals with sports, especially college sports. Will they reverse the position of the Biden administration regarding the applicability of Title IX to the House settlement payments scheduled to go to student-athletes starting in July? Will they support or oppose college athlete unionization and employee status? We know that they intend to end transgender athletes’ competing in women’s sports. Beyond that, many facets of college sports will be shaped by his priorities in this space.

Speaking of college sports and the House settlement…

6. What I’m thinking of Ohio State winning the CFP and the new era of spending…

It is said that money can’t buy happiness or even winning in sports, but in this changing landscape of college sports, Ohio State football may believe that. They beat Notre Dame on Monday night to win the CFP championship with the highest “payroll” in college football.
The House settlement will set up a revenue share, or “Cap”, of roughly $20 million for the Power Four schools, for them to “pay” student-athletes from all of their sports. Ohio State reportedly spent that amount, roughly $20 million, on football alone. Thus, with the implementation of the revenue Cap, Ohio State football will have to manage its roster to get “under the Cap” to spend on other sports.

 How will they do that? Well, there is also going to be “supplemental NIL” which was, in theory, the way NIL was supposed to work in the first place. Those amounts will be from third parties and subject to a fair market analysis review from Deloitte, who will be the NCAA’s arbiter of those deals (good luck with that).

 OSU won the last college football season, we think, without a field-leveling Salary Cap.

7. What I’m thinking about the Dodgers’ mastery of the Baseball marketplace…

 The Dodgers once again signed the most attractive international player on the market, Japan’s Roki Sasaki, continuing a recent trend of winning on an off the field in recent seasons.

 The Dodgers are now employing a contract structure to both entice free agents with large signing bonuses and use massive contract deferrals to their advantage. 

On the front end, they are luring players with large signing bonuses, such as the five-year, $162 million deal to Blake Snell with a whopping $52 million signing bonus. On the back end, they are deferring significant funds, such as the $680 million in deferrals to Shohei Ohtani, to push off cash obligations and lower net present valuations for luxury tax purposes (Ohtani’s $700 million contract has a luxury tax valuation of $460 million.

Most Major League Baseball teams cannot conceive of adding $1 billion of deferrals onto their books. But for the Dodgers, owned by the Guggenheim Partners, an investment firm that manages more than $335 billion in assets outside of baseball, it is now their way of doing business.

 Is this strategy “fair” to lower revenue clubs? Probably not. Is it allowable within the rules, both for signing bonus money and for deferrals?  Yes. Until Baseball owners, with or without the union’s involvement, change things, the Dodgers will continue to play chess while the rest of Baseball plays checkers. 

8. My tweet of the week:

9.  Quote I wish I said:

"I always did something I was a little not ready to do. I think that's how you grow — when there's that moment of, 'Wow, I'm really not sure I can do this,' and you push through.” - Marissa Meyer

My Podcast:

Got feisty this week talking about Ben Johnson and the NFL wanting an 18th game; college football’s coming Salary Cap and circumvention around it and Baseball’s Dodgers playing - on the field and off - at another level. Listen and learn:

My Students:

One of the features of the Sports Law program that I run is our Negotiation Team which competes at various competitions around the country.  Last weekend our team at the Tulane Baseball Competition won the entire event, besting the other 42 teams.  They were featured in an interview with MLB Network here: 

Thank you for your continuing support; please send me any feedback or questions (answered here); they are always welcome, send to [email protected].

Have a wonderful week.

Andrew