Welcome to the Sunday 7…

 Economic disparity is a theme of today’s newsletter, whether in the opening of Major League Baseball or in the closing stages of college basketball. I examine the “haves and have-nots” worlds of both. Also, Russell Wilson comes to New York (actually New Jersey) and the uncomfortable nexus of White Lotus and Duke.

 Settle in and enjoy…

1. What I’m thinking of the opening of Baseball and the wide payroll disparity…

As a sports business nerd, I equate the opening of Major League Baseball with the unique nature of baseball's business. Baseball is the only major professional sports league without a Salary Cap, and as I often note, that means that there is not only no “ceiling” for spending but also no “floor” for spending.

Thus, we open the 2025 season with a Dodgers payroll, including tax payments, of $398 million in the same league as the Marlins’ payroll of $88 million, a disparity of $310 million between the highest and lowest spending teams. There would never be this kind of team spending disparity in Salary Cap leagues; they are the regulators that are common in American sports for their desired effect of competitive balance.

The Mets and Phillies are also spending over $300 million with the Yankees right below that. And on the other end of the spectrum, there are four other teams besides the Marlins — Pirates, A’s, Rays, and White Sox — with payrolls under $110 million.

 Many owners — as well as fans — would like a Salary Cap, but the players’ union has stonewalled them since the days of Marvin Miller 50 years ago. The MLBPA still believes today that it is better to have no ceiling than to have a floor.

Yes, there is not a direct correlation between winning and spending, but it certainly lowers the margin for error. What sports sell to fans, above all else, is hope. I worry about the fan bases of teams like the Marlins, A’s, Rays, etc. with payrolls like this and I wonder about the loss of that hope.

2. What I’m thinking of Russell Wilson (and Jameis Winston) signing with the Giants…

 It is clear that Wilson’s best days are behind him, as his last three years have seen him traded, cut, and not re-signed by the Seahawks, Broncos, and Steelers. As for the Broncos, they are not-so-proud owners of the largest two-year dead money Cap charge in NFL history, with Wilson counting a staggering $53 million on their Cap last year and $34.5 million this year. But Wilson does still throw a good deep pass and has some intangibles that should help the Giants.

Winston is well-known throughout the league, having been around for a decade now, as a funny and engaging character who will be a supportive mentor to any starting quarterback, young or old.

 At salaries of $10.5 million (Wilson) and $4 million (Winston), the two will barely make more than the $14 million that Daniel Jones — the former starting quarterback that the Giants are replacing — is set to earn to compete for the starting job in Indianapolis.

The Giants own the 3rd overall pick in next month’s NFL Draft, and I think there is still a good chance they will select a future quarterback with that pick. But that future, whether with Shedeur Sanders or someone else, will likely wait until 2026 following some combination of Wilson and Winston at quarterback in 2025. But it is clear: the Giants aren’t planning their future around either of these quarterbacks; they will serve as a one-year collective bridge to whoever that future quarterback may be.

3. What I’m thinking of this last NCAA Tournament under the guise of amateurism…

We are now in the middle of the Elite Eight weekend of March Madness in this new era of paid players. Their “payors” now are collectives and other boosters serving as “owners” of these programs. Come July, however, with the expected final resolution of the House v. NCAA case, they will be paid - legally - by the universities themselves.

 Soon there will be a Salary Cap for major college sports of $20.5 million, with schools figuring out how to apportion that amount among football and men’s basketball, with whatever is left for women’s basketball and other sports. NIL will soon truly mean “Now It’s Legal.”

It is noteworthy that no “Cinderellas” came out during the tournament opening weekend. The smaller schools, with smaller budgets, simply cannot afford to compete in this new landscape.  When those teams have talented athletes playing at the highest level, those talented athletes transfer to bigger schools with bigger budgets. There are several players in this tournament making more than $2 million this year, and all of these players are essentially on one-year deals, with free agency (Transfer Portal) every year. This is still relatively new, but the early returns suggest a much more “chalk” NCAA March Madness in the future.

And, at least as far as CBS and TNT are concerned, I’m not sure the Cinderella stories are as popular as made out to be. Maybe in the first or second round, but once we are in this part of the tournament, I think both fans and media want to see the “name brands” in action. So maybe everyone is happy with this new world of college sports except, of course, the most vulnerable. Speaking of which…

4. What I’m thinking of St. Francis moving from Division I to Division III…

 The focus in college sports, as above, has been and will continue to be on the top programs and the top conferences. However, there will be casualties of a post-House world at the lower levels, and we are now seeing the first ones.

St. Francis, a small college in Pennsylvania that actually made it to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament where they lost to Alabama State in the “First Four” game last week, is now opting out of higher-level college athletics. In order “to place our students’ academic success and well-being first,” they will move from D1 to D-III following the 2025-26 seasons. 

 St. Francis sees what lies ahead with the more professionalized world of college sports — with the Cap and beyond — and is opting out of what they call “the headwinds and logistics that make being a small school in the NCAA Division I unsustainable.”

We don’t know what the future will look like for college sports, but the likelihood is that there will be more funding for the “haves” in high-level football and basketball and less funding for the “have-nots.” What may be left in that wake are casualties in non-revenue sports and moves like this from lower-budget athletic departments.

These are the uncomfortable side effects of the post-House world to come…

5. What I’m thinking about Duke, White Lotus, and how there might be lawyers…

I have become a regular viewer of the White Lotus series on HBO, although I don’t get caught up in all the conjecture about what everything means in it. 

One of the storylines this season is about a North Carolina family with some predictable loyalties to Duke. The father, played by Jason Isaacs, is wearing his Duke T-shirt in a couple of scenes, including when he is contemplating suicide with a gun to his head. And Duke is not happy about that.

Their head of communications told the New York Times that, well, there may be lawyers, saying “The White Lotus not only uses our brand without permission but uses it on imagery that does not reflect our values and simply goes too far.” Evidently, any publicity is not good publicity.

 My advice to Duke: relax and take the “win” that one of the most popular programs in streaming history is featuring Duke, talking about Duke and showing the Duke logo. And no, I don’t think anyone is associating Duke with suicide after that scene. Please.

6. My Tweet of the Week:

7.  Quote I wish I said:

“Overthinking is the biggest waste of human energy. Trust yourself, make a decision, and gain more experience. There is no such thing as perfect. You cannot think your way into perfection, just take action.” — Sylvester McNutt III

Thank you all for your continuing support; please send me any feedback or questions (answered here); they are always welcome, send to [email protected].

 Have a wonderful week…

 Andrew