Baseball's business has never been better. That's exactly why a lockout is coming.

Three days into my publishing career — Smarter About Sports is out, go get it.

But today I want to talk baseball, because it's All-Star week and the timing is fascinating. The metrics couldn't be better. Ratings are up — the Yankees-Red Sox game on Fox drew 4 million viewers, the best single-game number in 15 years. Attendance is averaging over 29,000 per game, up from last year which was up from the year before. Business is genuinely good.

And that's exactly the problem.

The CBA expires December 1st. Owners want a salary cap — they're the only major sport without one. Commissioner Manfred is going to push hard. Bryce Harper already told him publicly what he thought of that idea. Bruce Meyer, the MLBPA's executive director, is firmly against it. And everything right now points to a lockout starting in December.

Baseball is thriving heading into the second half. And it's heading straight for a work stoppage. I'm breaking down why — and what it means for the sport.

📘 Smarter About Sports is out now. Get it at smarteraboutsports.com — and tell a friend.